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The official NOAA Winter Outlook is out! Here is the local summary for AZ and the southwest U.S. Much of the same trends as previous years.
"Triple-Dip" La Niña: 2022-2023 is slated to be the 3rd consecutive winter of La Nina conditions. La Nina is defined as cooler than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific.
La Niña AZ Impacts: La Niña typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Arizona during the winter months. These dry conditions can lead to increased drought prevalence, reduced water supply and an earlier start to the Spring wildfire season.
La Niña Precipitation versus Normal: Most La Niña years result in below normal precipitation across Arizona. However, it only takes one significant winter storm to have major impacts across the state.
Precipitation Outlook: Odds tilt towards below normal precipitation across Arizona including below normal snow in the higher terrain.
Temperature Outlook: Odds tilt towards above normal temperatures across Arizona.
Arizona Winter Outlook